Banking Cycle Monitor
§20 — sub-indices are shown separately and never averaged into a single composite. Z-scores are vs this bank set's own FY17–FY26 history (10 observations).
Rates and liquidity sub-indices cannot be built: Tijori exposes no repo rate, deposit/lending rates, G-sec yields or RBI liquidity operations. The cycle read below is therefore credit/funding/quality/earnings/valuation only.
Credit
17.3%
z 0.41 · Median loan growth
Funding
+4.0pp
z 0.72 · Credit − deposit growth gap
Asset quality
1.9%
z -1.56 · Median gross NPA
Credit cost
1.3%
z -1.54 · Median credit cost
Earnings
1.1%
z 0.78 · Median ROA
Valuation
1.03x
z 0.36 · Median P/B
Regime label, latest fiscal year (§21 — emerges from thresholds on observed data)
Credit acceleration; Deposit-constrained growth; Clean balance sheets; Earnings recovery
Credit sub-index
Median loan growth across listed lenders
Funding sub-index
§6 — credit minus deposit growth (pp)
Asset-quality sub-index
Median GNPA and credit cost
Earnings & valuation sub-index
Median ROA (%) and P/B (x)
Regime history
§21 — labels derived from thresholds, not narrative
| FY | Loan gr | Dep gr | Gap | GNPA | ROA | P/B | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | 17.3% | 13.3% | +4.0pp | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.03 | Credit acceleration; Deposit-constrained growth; Clean balance sheets; Earnings recovery |
| FY2025 | 14.2% | 11.6% | +2.6pp | 2.7% | 1.2% | 1.08 | Deposit-constrained growth; Clean balance sheets; Elevated credit costs; Earnings recovery |
| FY2024 | 16.5% | 14.2% | +2.3pp | 2.8% | 1.3% | 1.41 | Credit acceleration; Deposit-constrained growth; Clean balance sheets; Elevated credit costs; Earnings recovery |
| FY2023 | 18.0% | 11.5% | +6.5pp | 3.2% | 1.1% | 1.13 | Credit acceleration; Deposit-constrained growth; Elevated credit costs; Earnings recovery |
| FY2022 | 12.1% | 10.0% | +2.1pp | 5.9% | 0.6% | 0.74 | Deposit-constrained growth; Elevated credit costs |
| FY2021 | 9.3% | 17.4% | -8.2pp | 6.8% | 0.6% | 0.92 | Asset-quality stress; Elevated credit costs |
| FY2020 | 7.1% | 7.5% | -0.4pp | 4.8% | 0.3% | 0.38 | Credit slowdown; Elevated credit costs |
| FY2019 | 15.0% | 16.3% | -1.3pp | 5.1% | 0.4% | 0.89 | Elevated credit costs |
| FY2018 | 26.9% | 23.7% | +3.2pp | 6.7% | 0.5% | 0.97 | Credit acceleration; Deposit-constrained growth; Asset-quality stress; Elevated credit costs |
| FY2017 | — | — | — | 6.0% | — | 0.89 | Neutral |